خام نايمكس الخفيف على أعتاب ال 80 دولار

[alsenjari]

78.15 دولار لخام نايمكس

76.70 دولار لخام برنت

أحداث لبنان وتقارير المخزون الأمريكي أسباب الارتفاع

ال 80 دولار باتت على الأبواب

شدوا الأحزمه يا أهل النفط

يبدو أن النفط سيدخل مرحله جديده وطويله في الأسعار

[alsenjari]

Oil soars near $77
Mideast violence sparks fears of severe shortages; heating oil hits two-month high.


Oil prices hit yet another record Thursday, soaring almost $2 a barrel, as escalating violence in the Middle East raised fears about severe supply disruptions.

Also boosting crude: a pipeline attack in Nigeria and a big drop in U.S. crude supplies


U.S. crude for August delivery jumped $1.75 to settle at $76.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That topped the previous record trading high of $75.78 set July 7.

In a sharp escalation in Mideast violence, Israeli warplanes bombed Beirut's international airport and its navy blockaded Lebanon's ports. Hezbollah guerrillas fired scores of rockets from Lebanon into northern Israel in the most intense bombardment in years.

One analyst said Iran, which has been thought to provide financial and military aid to Hezbollah in the past, may be linked to the conflict, raising fears that the country, the world's fifth-largest oil producer, could severely disrupt world oil supplies.

"We're not just talking about their oil, we're talking about 25 percent of the world's oil that flows off their coast through the Strait of Hormuz," said John Kilduff, an energy analyst at Fimat in New York. "And if they are to use oil as a weapon, we suspect they'll get support from Venezuela. That would send oil incalculably higher."

But Kilduff was quick to note that it isn't just geopolitical tensions that are responsible for the recent price run-up, pointing to record U.S. gasoline demand despite spiraling prices.

"The consumer hasn't reacted to $3 gasoline," he said. "The consumer can actually fight back by driving less. If [they] signal to the market that demand is elastic, prices will come down."

Kilduff said the record crude prices will translate into an extra eight to 10 cents a gallon at the pump within the next week or two.

"It's going to be rapid, and it's going to be sustained," he said.

In more trouble for the consumer, heating oil futures hit a two-month high, bolstered by big fund buying on fears that heating and diesel oil production is taking a back seat to gasoline refining, Reuters reported.

Kilduff said he though geopolitical concerns were adding about $20 to the cost of a barrel of crude oil, while speculative buying by big investors was tacking on $10, leaving oil sitting at somewhere around the $45 a barrel mark attributable to fundamental supply and demand.

Oil has soared nearly 25 percent since the start of the year and in excess of 300 percent since 2002.

Most analysts blame much of the rise on growing demand that has outstripped the pace of supply.

That has caused the world's spare production capacity to drop from more than 5 million barrels a day to around 1 million barrels a day now, which means producer nations can't fill the gap if a supply disruption occurs in places like Iran or Nigeria. It also means political or military spats that were once mere afterthoughts can now move prices in a big way.

More trouble
In addition, Western powers agreed Wednesday to send the case of Iran back to the United Nations Security Council for possible punishment after the country refused to immediately accept a package of incentives in return for halting some work on its nuclear program.

Iran has been locked in a dispute with the West for months over its nuclear ambitions, which it says are for peaceful power-generating purposes but which many suspect are intended to build a bomb. Segments of the government have threatened to withhold oil if sanctions are imposed against the country.

Hope that Iran would agree to a deal earlier this week drove oil prices down to around $73 a barrel.

In Nigeria, the world's eight-largest exporter, two suspected explosions tore through a crude oil pipeline operated by Italy's Agip that feed the Brass oil terminal, causing massive oil spills in Nigeria's southern state of Bayelsa, Reuters reported.

Output in the country has already been cut by militants, who come from a poor but oil-rich part of the nation and are demanding more of the oil wealth.

Tight supplies
Adding to oil's surge was a report Wednesday that said U.S. supplies of crude oil fell by 6 million barrels, nearly five times the drop expected.

One analyst said the steep decline could have been due to an oil spill that closed a major shipping lane along the Gulf Coast last week.

But despite the fall in crude stocks, they still remain well above average, while gasoline and distillate supplies are slightly above average, the report said.

[alsenjari]

Oil Prices Settle Near $77 a Barrel
Thursday July 13, 3:36 pm ET
By Brad Foss, AP Business Writer
Oil Prices Settle at Record Near $77 a Barrel As Violence in Middle East Escalates


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Oil prices settled at a record above $76 a barrel Thursday in a market agitated by escalating violence in the Middle East and the threat of supply disruptions there and beyond.
The latest surge in oil shook stock-market investors' confidence, though economists said most U.S. consumers and businesses appear to be absorbing higher energy costs surprisingly well.
U.S. gasoline demand continues to rise in spite of near $3-a-gallon pump prices, core inflation remains relatively low and the U.S. economy is forecast to grow by roughly 3 percent in the second half of the year.

"Two years ago I might have said that $70 or $75 a barrel would be some kind of a tipping point. Now I'm not so sure anymore," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a private forecasting firm.

Still, Behravesh said lower-income Americans are suffering disproportionately from higher energy costs and "I could certainly make a policy case for helping them out on a temporary basis."

Light sweet crude for August delivery shot up as high as $76.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before settling at $76.70. The rally came as fighting between Israel and Lebanon intensified, explosions hit Nigerian oil installations and a diplomatic standoff dragged on between the West and Iran over its nuclear program.

The previous Nymex settlement record of $75.19 was set July 5. The previous intraday record of $75.78 was posted two days later.

Adjusted for inflation, oil prices would need to rise to about $90 a barrel to exceed the highs set a quarter century ago when supplies tightened in the aftermath of a revolution in Iran and a war between Iraq and Iran.

Today oil prices are being pushed higher by rising global demand and worries that the world's limited supply cushion would not be adequate to offset a lengthy disruption to output in major producing countries, such as Iran or Nigeria. There are also concerns about the risks hurricanes pose to U.S. production.

The latest fear being priced into the market is that the conflict between Israel and Lebanon could spill over into other corners of the Middle East, the region that produces nearly a third the world's oil and contains almost two-thirds of its untapped reserves.

Israel intensified its attacks against Lebanon on Thursday, imposing a naval blockade, twice hitting Beirut's airport and blasting two Lebanese army air bases near Syria. Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets into Israel, which said one also struck the port city of Haifa. More than 51 people have died in two days of violence following the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah militants, who have financial links to Syria and Iran.

Iran has threatened on more than one occasion to use oil as a weapon if the United Nations uses economic sanctions or some other punishment in its dispute with Tehran over its nuclear program. While OPEC's No. 2 supplier has not raised the issue of withholding oil from the market in a sign of solidarity with Hezbollah, the possibility is no doubt influencing oil traders' actions.

"It plays psychologically in people's minds," said Larry Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York-based industry-financed think tank. "You don't have to hear them say it."

In Nigeria, government officials said twin explosions hit oil installations belonging to an Italian oil company in the volatile southeastern delta region. Elsewhere, militants attacked a group of 11 boats carrying supplies to Chevron's offshore oil fields Wednesday, killing four navy sailors who were escorting the convoy, Brig. Gen. Alfred Ilogho said Thursday.

"The oil price has become a register of geopolitical tensions and fears," said Daniel Yergin, who heads Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Yergin said petroleum supply-demand fundamentals are improving, with global oil inventories and spare oil-production capacity rising, but clearly not enough to offset the geopolitical unrest.

The surge in oil prices rattled stock market investors, sending the Dow Jones industrials sharply lower for the second straight day. Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, slumped 2 percent on the New York Stock Exchange on concerns that high energy prices are cutting into consumers' discretionary income.

"The economy took $50 oil in stride," Yergin said. "It's clearly not taking $70 or $75 a barrel in stride. This is a rougher adjustment."

With U.S. oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. earning record amounts, some members of Congress have proposed taxing "windfall" profits in order to finance energy assistance programs for the poor, but the idea does not have wide support.

The energy-policy debate in Washington right now centers around efforts to repeal the ban on offshore drilling and to fix a law that allows oil and natural-gas companies to avoid billions of dollars of royalty payments on offshore drilling leases.

Critics say Congress has failed in its approach to deal with soaring energy costs because it has not given as much attention to curbing demand as it has to adding supplies, such as a hotly debated proposal to open an Alaskan wildlife refuge to oil drilling.

"We too often forget that the United States is far and away the biggest consumer of oil," said Tyson Slocum, an energy expert at Public Citzen, a Washington-based consumer watchdog. Slocum said the country needs to invest more in public transportation and to sharply increase automobile fuel-economy standards.

Associated Press Writers Sam Ghattas in Beirut and William Nsoyoh in Yenagoa, Nigeria, contributed to this report.

[المراقب]

سيصل إلى 100 دولار مع استمرار الأزمات في المنطقة.

[alsenjari]

إغلاقات الجمعه

خام نايمكس الخفيف

78.71

إرتفاع 0.47

خام برنت

77.33

إرتفاع 0.63

[alsenjari]

Oil: Looking at $100

While a broader conflict with Iran isn't likely soon, one more big event could push crude prices into the triple digits.
As bombs fall in Beirut, pipelines explode in Nigeria and Iran shakes its fist at the West, energy traders and motorists alike are wondering one thing: How high can oil prices go?

"If another major event takes place, it's not at all unrealistic for oil to spike to $100," said Bruce Lanni, an oil analyst at A.G. Edwards. "And there's no fundamental reason in this current climate to see oil prices retreat below $70 in the next few months."

The debate, or speculation, focuses on the type and likelihood of another "major event" in the next few months.

Oil jumped to record highs Thursday and Friday, breaking the $78 mark, on fears that fighting between Israel and Lebanon will spread to the broader Middle East, which accounts for 30 percent of the world's oil output and holds 60 percent of its proven reserves.

For now, all eyes are on Iran. The country, the world's fifth-largest producer, could very well be referred to the United Nations Security Council after if failed to respond earlier this week to a package of Western incentives intended to get it to curb its nuclear program.

It could also get dragged into the Israeli-Lebanon conflict, as the country is widely believed to support the Hezbollah fighters that Israel is currently chasing in southern Lebanon, and may be supplying the rockets now hitting Israeli cities.

The ultimate fear is that either way, Iran may cut off its oil exports or, worse, attempt to disrupt tanker traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz just off its coast. About a quarter of the world's oil passes through the strait on its way to market.

But experts say the latter scenario isn't likely.

"Markets tend to over-react," said Steven Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Iran doesn't need to be sinking ships in the Gulf, they have other cards to play," like increasing support for fighters in Iraq or Lebanon.

James Phillips, a research fellow at the think tank Heritage Foundation, said Iran has only limited military capability to disrupt shipping. He also said Iran, unlike Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which can export oil via pipeline, is completely dependent on the Gulf to export its product.

"It would truly have to be an act of desperation on Iran's part," said Phillips, saying it would take a U.S. strike on its oil facilities to push the country that far.

Even with that worst-case scenario aside, analysts are still split over how much higher worries about the Middle East might drive oil prices.

"I don't see the violence quitting anytime soon," said Neal Dingmann, an energy analyst at the investment firm Pritchard Capital Partners. "I think we continue up and to the right."

Dingmann predicts prices of $80 to $85 a barrel over the next couple of months barring any new major events, and $90 to $100 if things escalate.

But A.G. Edwards' Lanni, noting all the other hot spots from Nigeria to North Korea to Venezuela, thinks tensions are near a peak.

"We're most likely at or near the worst of all scenarios geopolitically," he said "Common sense tells you that at least some of these situations will get resolved."

There is one thing lurking just around the corner that Lanni said could cause his projected spike to $100.

"The only other event that I can put my hands on now is hurricane season," he said.

And while there is some debate over the likelihood of another big event, energy analysts said that even if world peace broke out tomorrow, fundamental supply and demand would still keep oil in the $50 to $60 range.

[23سلطان]

سيصل إلى 100 دولار مع استمرار الأزمات في المنطقة.

140 دولار

ويومها ستتعرض دولة نفطية كبرى للغزو من قبل امريكا

والله اني سمعتها من رجل طاعن في السن قبل 3 اعوام يوم كان سعر البرميل 45 دولار وكنت اظنه مخرف

والان بدأ يظهر صدق (حدس) و (فراسة) هذا العجوز.

[الأختصاصي]

الف شكر على الخبر

[جوكر البورصة]

الفال للاسهم ان شاء الله ترتفع:dance

رروووووح يالبترول والقلب داعيلكomen

[المراقب]

وصول النفط إلى 100 دولار أو أكثر ، يليه الذهب 1000 دولار. وبالتالي ستنقلب كل الموازين ليس فقط في المنطقة بل في العالم كله.

[alsenjari]

السعوديه تقول أن لديها مابين 350 الف إلى 450 الف برميل يوميا من انتاجها لا تجد لها مشتري الأسواق العالمية غارقه بالمعروض النفطي ومع ذلك النفط مولع نار سعره بتزايد مستمر ومحللين يرون ان الأرقام الثلاثيه باتت قريبه لأسعار النفط

تحليلي المتواضع : سعر النفط غير معقول ومفتعل وجميع الأزمات التي تسبب ارتفاع سعره أزمات مفتعله لهدف تسديد فاتورة حرب العراق من النفط العراقي

[23سلطان]

السعوديه تقول أن لديها مابين 350 الف إلى 450 الف برميل يوميا من انتاجها لا تجد لها مشتري الأسواق العالمية غارقه بالمعروض النفطي ومع ذلك النفط مولع نار سعره بتزايد مستمر ومحللين يرون ان الأرقام الثلاثيه باتت قريبه لأسعار النفط

تحليلي المتواضع : سعر النفط غير معقول ومفتعل وجميع الأزمات التي تسبب ارتفاع سعره أزمات مفتعله لهدف تسديد فاتورة حرب العراق من النفط العراقي

لا اتفق معك لعدة اسباب:

1. بعض انتاج السعودية من النفط يحتوي على نسبة عالية من مادة الكبريت ولدلك فهو غير مرغوب ولقد اوقفت عدة دول استيراد النفط السعودي بسبب الكبريت المضر ومنها الصين واليابان.

2. قلة المصافي امريكا .. ارتفع الطلب على النفط بشكل خرافي آخر 5 سنوات وهو مالم يتوقعه احد ولك في شوارع الدوحة مثال على كثرة السيارت .. اضف ان امريكا لديها قوانين بيئة مشددة تمنع استيراد اي وقود للسيارات غير النفط الاوروبي (مثل السويد) او اليابان.

3. انهيار ربع انتاج امريكا من خليج المكسيك بسبب اعصار كاترينا .. وتوقع 23 اعصار هدا الصيف.

4. حرب العراق وتحول بغداد الى دولة مستوردة للبنزين بعد ان كانت مصدرة بسبب رخص اسعار البنزين هناك.

مشكلة النفط هو زيادة اعداد السيارت والطلب العالي على البنزين

تخيل انك تحتاج مليون برميل من بنزين السيارة وترمي الباقي في الخزانات او تبيعه بثمن بخس وهو الخاص الآن وهو سبب ؤغبة ايران بمفاعل نووي لتوفير الغاز والنفط.

هده هي مشكلة النفط

4.