المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة كبير المتداولين
قل لن يصيبنا إلا ما كتب الله لنا هو مولانا وعلى الله فليتوكل المؤمنون
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قل لن يصيبنا إلا ما كتب الله لنا هو مولانا وعلى الله فليتوكل المؤمنون
موضوع قيم اخي عابر سبيل
وببساطة شديدة
التعامل مع السوق يكون ب
لاتخاف ولاتطمع
لاتنتظر ان يعطيك احد ما ارباحا على طبق من ذهب
كما لاتجعل اموالك عرضة للاندثار نتيجة تكرار الاخطاء
عندما تخسر اكثر من مرة , توقف
حتى تعيد حسابتك
وعندما تربح اكثر من مرة , توقف
حتى تعيد القراءة من جديد
عالم الاسواق لايرحم
وقد يدخلك في صراعات نفسية عميقة تؤدي الى امراض مختلفة
وبالتالي المال يذهب ويعود
اما صحتك ان ذهبت فلن تعود
ربكَ موُجوُد ، وَرزقُكَ مكتوُب ، وعُمركَ مَحدوُد , قُل الحٌمّد لله
كلام من ذهب من انسان ذهب
انت انسان ذهب ورائع , الله يوفقك في خدمة اخوانك
ربكَ موُجوُد ، وَرزقُكَ مكتوُب ، وعُمركَ مَحدوُد , قُل الحٌمّد لله
حياك الله اخي/مقيم..
و اضافتك انت ايضا قيَمة ..سيدي الكريم!
فانت تدعوا للمراجعة في كلا الحالتين..
عند الخسارة.و حتى عند الربح!
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عَنْ أَنَسٍ ، أَنَّ نَبِيَّ اللَّهِ صَلَّى اللَّهُ عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ قَالَ :
" لَا عَدْوَى ، وَلَا طِيَرَةَ ، وَيُعْجِبُنِي الْفَأْلُ ،الْكَلِمَةُ الْحَسَنَةُ، الْكَلِمَةُ الطَّيِّبَةُ "
للتذكير و التنبيه..
عسى الله ينفع به
كل من سيقرؤه..
اكانت قرائك لاول مرة..
او من سيعيد القراءة..بالمزيد من التأمل!
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عَنْ أَنَسٍ ، أَنَّ نَبِيَّ اللَّهِ صَلَّى اللَّهُ عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ قَالَ :
" لَا عَدْوَى ، وَلَا طِيَرَةَ ، وَيُعْجِبُنِي الْفَأْلُ ،الْكَلِمَةُ الْحَسَنَةُ، الْكَلِمَةُ الطَّيِّبَةُ "
MAY 29, 2015 @ 9:04 PM
How To Avoid Investor Traps And Invest During Turbulent Times
John P. Reese, CONTRIBUTOR
Disclosure: I own shares of Apple. High-frequency traders, short-sighted fund managers, big fees; for individual investors, there’s no shortage of obstacles to good returns in the stock market. But the greatest obstacle is even closer than you think: It’s your brain. We humans are wired to be successful at a lot of activities, but investing isn’t one of them. While our instincts to follow the crowd and run from danger serve us quite well in the real world, where we might have to find a fire exit or flee from an attacker, they wreak havoc in the stock market, where dangers are very often short-term mirages and following the crowd often leads to buying high and selling low. The proof is in the pudding. In its recently released Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, the investment research firm Dalbar said that while the S&P 500 returned 13.7% in 2014, the average equity mutual fund investor gained a mere 5.5%. And while the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was gaining nearly 6%, the average fixed income mutual fund investor was gaining just 1.2%. While those 2014 results were particularly bad, they are merely part of a broader, long-term pattern of investors underperforming the major market indices by wide margins. Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has returned 11.1% annualized, while the average equity mutual fund investor has gained just 3.8%, according to Dalbar. Returns for fixed income investors have been even worse. Over the past 3 decades, the Barclays index has averaged annualized returns of 7.4%; investors in fixed income funds gained an average of 0.7%.
While fees no doubt take a bite out of investor returns, Dalbar indicates that the main reason for individual investors’ terrible collective performance is behavioral. “Investor behavior is not simply buying and selling at the wrong time, it is the psychological traps, triggers and misconceptions that cause investors to act irrationally,” the group says. “That irrationality leads to the buying and selling at the wrong time which leads to underperformance.” Just what psychological traps should you be aware of? Here are several, taken from Dalbar and from behavioral finance pioneer Richard Thaler’s Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume 2. Hindsight Bias: This is the tendency of people to believe–after an event has occurred–that they predicted it before it happened. This can make you overestimate your predictive abilities. For example, perhaps you thought about buying XYZ stock a few months ago, but didn’t. Since then it has soared, and you think, “I knew it was going to go up!” In reality, there were probably negatives you saw in the stock, too — after all, if you were positive it would go up, why didn’t you buy it? But now you forget about any misgivings you had. You only remember the mts when you thought it would jump. The danger becomes that, the next time you get any sort of feeling about a stock, you’ll act on it without really analyzing it.
Mental Accounting: This is when someone takes undue risk in one area, and then tries to counterbalance that by avoiding rational risk in other areas, Dalbar says. Say, for example, that you tilt the bond portion of your portfolio sharply toward high-risk junk bonds. That has you feeling a little nervous, so you then play things extremely conservatively with your stock picks. What you should do is take an appropriate amount of risk in each area. Otherwise, you now run the risk of losing your risky junk bond bet and underperforming with your ultra-conservative equity portfolio.
Fear of Regret: Regret is an incredibly painful thing, and because we fear it, Dalbar says investors treat errors of commission more seriously than errors of omission. For example, you buy a stock and it falls in price. Its fundamentals and balance sheet also deteriorate, to the point that it’s no longer a good stock to own. Cash out and take the loss, and you’ll have to deal with feeling regret over buying the stock in the first place — an error of commission. So instead you hang onto the stock, hoping that it will bounce back. Not selling is an error of omission that likely is worse, but many investors do just that because they fear dealing with the finality and regret of locking in the loss.
Expectation Bias: Studies show that people are more likely to look for facts and data that support their initial thesis than they are to find evidence to refute it. If you have a good feeling about a stock, you’re likely to focus on information that supports that feeling.
Anchoring: In the absence of certainty, people will often “anchor” to a data point that isn’t justified. Example: Earlier this year, stock XYZ traded for $70 a share. Now it’s down to $35, so you think it must be a bargain, and buy it. But there’s nothing to say that the $70 figure was warranted. The stock might have been greatly overvalued at $70. Alternatively, something might have happened that has a big negative impact on the firm’s business. In any case, that $70 figure is irrelevant — what matters is the firm’s current fundamentals and its shares’ current valuation. Still, many investors will anchor to the $70 figure.
Have A Plan
These biases tend to rear their heads when markets get turbulent — and those are the times when you can really lose money by acting emotionally. How do you avoid falling into these pitfalls? Well, in a recent piece for Kiplinger magazine, Anne Kates Smith talked about the biases that impact investors and how you can combat them. “Crafting an investment policy statement — and an exit strategy — before the going gets rough helps take the emotion out of buying, selling and rebalancing decisions,” she said, and I agree. As is the case with just about anything in life, the more you prepare for difficult times, the less likely you are to panic when difficult times do hit.
With my guru-inspired investing system, I’ve thought a great deal about how to handle market declines and turbulent times. In fact, my entire portfolio management system is designed to overcome the biases that dog investors. By using a purely quantitative system and buying and selling only at fixed intervals, this system keeps emotion from entering the equation. When times get tough and the market starts falling, rules like these help me focus on the long-term and not get swayed by stress or emotion. Emotion and those pesky biases can also take over when you’re dealing with popular stocks with flashy products or services. With such stocks, it’s easy to get caught up in the headlines (“media response” bias, according to Dalbar) or follow the crowd (“herding” bias) instead of making a rational analysis of the stock. What does my quantitative, rules-based system think of some of the market’s flashiest, best-known stocks right now?
Here’s a sampling:
Apple: The $750-billion-market-cap tech giant gets strong interest from both my Peter Lynch- and Warren Buffett-based models. The Lynch approach likes its 29% long-term growth rate and 16.1 P/E ratio, which make for a solid 0.56 P/E-to-Growth ratio. My Buffett-based model likes that its EPS have dipped in only one year of the past decade; it could pay off its $40 billion in debt in less than a year, if it wanted to, given its $47 billion in annual earnings; and it has a 10-year average ROE of 27.4%.
Tesla Motors: The electric car maker’s flashy, cutting-edge products and media hype make Tesla just the kind of stock that many investors will jump on. Unfortunately, its fundamentals leave a lot to be desired. The $31-billion-market-cap company hasn’t produced a profit since 2005, and, while it’s expected to make a profit over the next 12 months, shares trade for more than 5,500 times those projected earnings. Add in a -46% return on equity, and none of my models like TSLA.
Twitter: Another trendy, popular pick (though it has stumbled recently), this social media giant ($24 billion market cap) unfortunately is also lacking when it comes to fundamentals. It’s not making a profit, and, while it’s expected to make one over the next year, it trades for more than 100 times that projected earnings figure. Its profit margins are -38%, and its return on equity -18%. None of my models have interest.
Biogen: The biotech industry is filled with flashy, enticing stocks that are often more hype than substance. But this $92 billion market cap firm has plenty of substance. While it is not dirt cheap, with a P/E ratio of 28.4, my Lynch-based model thinks Biogen’s 32.5% long-term growth rate makes it worth the price. Those two figures makes for a solid 0.87 PEG ratio, and the strategy also likes Biogen’s 5% debt/equity ratio.
Plan Before The Storm
When and how the next market crisis hits is anyone’s guess. But at some point, trouble will occur — it’s just the nature of the beast. And at those times, you’ll be particularly prone to making emotional decisions. Instead of trying to predict when it will happen — which few, if any, people can do — I’d advise that you think about what you will do when things get rough. Have a plan that will best serve your needs. Write down how you want to react when big declines hit, and what your rationale is. Then return back to that document when the going gets tough and all those biases are threatening to creep into your decision-making. Also, familiarize yourself with market history. If you have researched past market cycles, you understand that stocks have always rebounded from terrible economic, political, and social crises; that times when fears are high and the market is tumbling tend to be the best times to invest; that overly exuberant periods are often followed by market declines. Knowing all of that can offer comfort when things get tough. Ready yourself while the skies are relatively clear, because when thunderstorms hit, most people are too busy worrying about the rain and lightning to think clearly.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor...ulent-times/4/
جزاك الله خير اخوي
مقال جميل ومفيد بذات الوقت
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و إياك أخ/ a.t.a
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شكرا جزيلا اخ/عمار على هذا المقال القيّم و النافع..
و اتمنى منك او من يملكون القدرة العمل على ترجمته..او فقرات منه..
لتعم القائدة على كل القراء..
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المثال في المقتبس اعلاه..
واقعي عندنا في بورصة قطر في هذه الأيام..
و هو سهم إزدان..
فكثيرون ربما دخلوا على السهم في الاسبوعين الاخيرين..
عندما رأوه يتحرك من جديد صعودا من سعر ال15 ريال..
طمعا في ان يلامس من جديد سعره التاريخي عند ال50 ريال!!
و هذا الخطأ و آليته و دوافعه..ما تشرحه القاعدة التي اقتبستها أعلاه من المقال
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عَنْ أَنَسٍ ، أَنَّ نَبِيَّ اللَّهِ صَلَّى اللَّهُ عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ قَالَ :
" لَا عَدْوَى ، وَلَا طِيَرَةَ ، وَيُعْجِبُنِي الْفَأْلُ ،الْكَلِمَةُ الْحَسَنَةُ، الْكَلِمَةُ الطَّيِّبَةُ "
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